Peak Loads for Summer 2021
Brakey Energy provides email alerts in advance of potential Capacity and Transmission Coincident Peaks (CPs) to those clients that elect to receive them. As of September 14, 2021, Brakey Energy has issued 16 Capacity CP alerts, 13 FirstEnergy-Ohio (FE) Transmission CP alerts, and eight American Electric Power-Ohio (AEP) CP alerts for Summer 2021.
Capacity CPs occur during the five one-hour intervals when demand on the PJM Interconnection (PJM) grid is at its highest. Transmission CPs for FE customers occur during the five one-hour intervals when demand on FE’s zonal grid is at its highest. The Transmission CP for AEP customers occurs during the one-hour interval when demand on AEP’s zonal grid is at its highest.
The tables below list PJM’s and FE’s five highest loads and AEP’s single highest load this year, as well as the day and time of each occurrence. This is based on preliminary data.
Table 1: Five Highest Loads for PJM through September 14, 2021
Table 2: Five Highest Loads for FE through September 14, 2021
Table 3: Single Highest Load for AEP through September 14, 2021
Repeated periods of sustained heat over much of the eastern United States made for a challenging CP prediction season, although we were able to warn for each to-date CP this year and these days largely aligned with our higher risk assessments. These repeated bouts of heat also resulted in CPs being spread out across the summer as opposed to being lumped around one or two extreme temperature events.
Based on current weather forecasts, we do not anticipate any further potential CP events for the year.
PJM can adjust metered load data for up to 90 days. Brakey Energy will continue to monitor metered loads and will provide an update on the Capacity and Transmission CPs once they are finalized by PJM.
FE Updates SSO Rates for October 1, 2021
Electric costs will be decreasing on October 1 for FE customers that take electric generation service under the utilities’ Standard Service Offer (SSO). The SSO is the default rate charged by the utility for generation services to customers that do not contract with an alternative supplier. The SSO generation rate is higher during the three summer months of June, July, and August than it is during the other nine months of the year.
The current and October 1, 2021 SSO rates per kilowatt hour (kWh) for customers served under Ohio Edison (OE), the Illuminating Company (CEI), and Toledo Edison (TE) Residential (RS), Secondary (GS), Primary (GP), Subtransmission (GSU), and Transmission (GT) rate schedules are shown in the tables below. These rates will change again on January 1, 2022.
Table 4: OE SSO Rates
Table 5: CEI SSO Rates
Table 6: TE SSO Rates
If you would like more information about how FE’s SSO rate update will impact your monthly electric costs, please contact Jennifer Lemley.
The highly competitive generation offers we have been able to highlight for residential customers continue to dry up. It was not too long ago we were identifying residential offers below 3.50¢/kWh.
However, Better Buy Energy is still offering a 12-month deal for 5.09¢/kWh. With shorter term power prices skyrocketing, it represents a very compelling value relative to current market conditions. And importantly, there is no monthly or early termination fees. So, in the event we highlight a more compelling offer prior to expiration, you can transition without penalty.
Actual rates and availability may vary based on service territory. Be sure to contract for a new offer upon term expiration to avoid extremely expensive post-term charges.
Brakey Energy has long and often found defaulting to distribution utilities’ Standard Choice Offer (SCO) a prudent strategy for natural gas supply. We encourage our readers to employ this strategy if they’re comfortable riding the often highly volatile natural gas market.
Natural Gas Market Update
The NYMEX settlement price for September is $4.370 per million British Thermal Units (MMBtu), up 8.1% from August’s price of $4.044 per MMBtu. This settlement price is used to calculate September gas supply costs for customers that contract for a NYMEX-based index gas product.
The graph below shows the year-over-year monthly NYMEX settlement prices for 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 to-date. Prices shown are in dollars per MMBtu of natural gas. Driven by natural gas exports and rising demand, gas prices have continued to climb over the last three months and are approaching four-year highs.
Figure 1: NYMEX Monthly Natural Gas Settlement Prices
Electricity Market Update
The graph below shows the around-the-clock (ATC) 12-month price strip for electric generation and how it has changed over the past 36 months for three Ohio utility service territories: AEP, FE (the ATSI zone), and AES-Ohio (formerly Dayton Power & Light (the DAY zone)). Prices have increased sharply since May in response to higher gas prices and increased demand due to higher-than-normal temperatures across the region.
Figure 2: 12-Month Energy Price Strip
*ATC pricing as of September 14, 2021. Data provided by Direct Energy Business.
The graph below provided by Direct Energy Business shows the September 14, 2019 through September 14, 2021 ATC forward prices for calendar years 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2026 for the AEP-Dayton (AD) hub. Forward calendar year strip prices for all years are at two-year highs. Calendar year 2022 is continuing to trade at an increasingly extreme outsized premium to all other years.
Figure 3: AD Hub Calendar Year Strip Prices
*ATC pricing as of September 14, 2021.